MODELAGEM CHUVA-VAZÃO PARA PREDIÇÕES DE LÂMINA DE ÁGUA E PRODUÇÃO DE SEDIMENTOS DE BACIAS HIDROGRÁFICAS
Kinematic waves, KINEROS2, Inverse problem, Parameter estimation.
The development of mathematical models and direct methods enabled the prediction of hydrological phenomena, such as rainfall-runoff and erosion. The complement simulation and inverse problems can be applied to determine the properties of these phenomena and estimate the parameters, which cannot be measured directly. Thus, this study was developed in a small catchment in the Amazon with precipitation data and parameters estimated through the KINEROS2 (K2)/direct model (DM) model. The study proposes solutions to the inverse problem (IP) characterized by the rainfall-runoff phenomenon for events with scarce data to find the lateral inflow rate and simulate the runoff depth rate in the analysed basin. From K2/DM modelling, problem solution methods with MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo)/Fourier transform were analysed. The developed method was applied to 4 rainfall-runoff events, presenting a good fit between the observed and predicted data since Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients between 0.76 and 0.85 were obtained.